Alarm in the Aegean: Turkey Revives the “Blue Homeland” Doctrine, Putting “Calm Waters” at Risk
Tensions are once again rising between Greece and Turkey after Ankara declared two marine parks in the northern and eastern Aegean, bringing its revisionist “Blue Homeland” doctrine back to the forefront.
The move, combined with a sharp increase in Turkish activity in the air and at sea, has caused serious concern in Athens and threatens to undermine the period of relative calm that followed the 2023 Athens Declaration.
Between August 1 and 16, Turkish UAVs, surveillance aircraft and F-16 fighter jets reportedly committed 98 violations of Greek national airspace and 71 breaches of air traffic regulations. One incident escalated into a simulated dogfight. These figures followed 45 airspace violations in July and 47 in June, along with four engagements and one drone overflight of Greek territory.
The situation at sea is equally troubling. Since the beginning of the year, Greek authorities have recorded 1,527 incidents involving violations of territorial waters by vessels belonging to the Turkish Navy, Coast Guard and fishing fleet.
At the same time, Ankara’s rhetoric on Cyprus and its diplomatic activity in Egypt and Libya are reinforcing Greek concerns over Turkey’s wider strategy in the Eastern Mediterranean.
Greece has responded through diplomatic channels while also strengthening its military readiness. The multinational “MEDUSA 15” exercise is scheduled to take place around Crete and the Cretan Sea from September 10 to 19, with the participation of Egypt, Cyprus, France and Italy.
A critical test for Greek-Turkish relations will be the planned resumption of seabed surveys between Karpathos and Cyprus for the electricity interconnection project—an area where Turkey attempted to obstruct the operations of the research vessel Ievoli Relume in July 2024.
